I went to business school in the late 70s and it was drilled into our heads that to obtain high returns one must accept high risks. As future captains of industry we were to be willing to accept such risk if, in our opinion it had a reasonable likelihood of ending in a positive outcome. The play of this scenario is an indication of why so few captains of industry can make the jump to captains of infantry...

In this action a realtively large, decent Soviet Guards unit must either destroy or chase away a moderately sized force of Luftwaffe troops. The Luftwaffe have to retain control over the town while experienceing few losses.

The large force of Soviets and the close promximity of the town to their entrance point indicate that it will be difficult for the Germans to maintain complete control of the town, while the need to either cause 11 step losses or to chase the Germans, essentially, off the map indicates that the Soviets will also have a tough time. A draw seems very likely.

My play of the scenario through 17 of the 21 turns indicated that we were racing towards exactly such a draw. The Germans could not keep the Soviets out of the town but had only experienced 5 step losses at that point. The Soviets had entered in two unequal forces, one heading directly for Emel'ianova and the other of two companies entered to shield the town from any interference from the Luftwaffe troops in the woods to the south of the town (a required setup for the Germans).

As play progressed the Soviets were able to establish themselves in Emel'ianova but could not eliminate many steps and even if they were able to get the Germans out of the town a draw still loomed. At about the ten turn moment, the Soviet blocking force turned towards the town to provide extra weight to the assault which had stalled. Meanwhile the German force inside Emel'ianova was experiecing some degradation but continued to hold out in the center of the town.

The German force outside the town attacked the rear of the moving Soviets and was able to eliminate or disrupt most of the troops giving them a clear shot at the Soviets in the town who had, at that moment, few reserves to face an outside attack.

The possibility of entering the town and getting a shot at the Soviet major (and the effects such a decapitation would have on the total force) was a heady return. The Germans began to make such a move.

The real fun of PG is when you see your plans, carefully thought out, plotted and sprung come completely undone in a matter of moments.

First, the southern side of the German position within the town unexpectedly collapsed on turn 18 and the "rescuers" took some losses from Soviet artillery which enjoyed the opportunity to attack something that didn't have a column reduction on the fire chart. At this point losses for the Germans had jumped from 5 to 8 in a single turn. Obviously an abberation, it couldn't possibly happen again, "press on", says the Luftwaffe major.

Of course, it did, this time the northern section of the town collpases and a demoralized unit gets pounded by artillery and 'voila' a draw is turned into a loss by a calculated risk. This, of course, is why they call it risk. A critical point of the risk-return relationship that was clearly understressed in business school is that sometimes the risk you take can result in a loss. No doubt the Luftwaffe major had plenty of time to think about this on his way to the GUlag.