The rule for this supplement says FoG occurs if the total of 6 dice sums to 15 or more.
Is this correct? 43,821 of the 46,656 possible dice rolls sum to 15 or more, which would mean 13 out of 14 turns would end after the second activation of the player who lost the initiative roll.
I assumed this was a typo but I did not see as an errata so I am wondering.
I love that you bothered to figure out the exact results ratio. I'm sure it's a typo. :-)
It was faster to determine the exact odds than to write this email.
Start an Excel spreadsheet with 1 in cells A1 to F1, =SUM(A1:F1) in cell G1 and =IF(G1>=15, 1, 0) in cell H1
In A2: =IF(AND(B1=6, C1=6, D1=6, E1=6, F1=6), IF(A1 < 6, A1+1, 1), A1)
In B2: =IF(AND(C1=6, D1=6, E1=6, F1=6), IF(B1 < 6, B1+1, 1), B1)
In C2: =IF(AND(D1=6, E1=6, F1=6), IF(C1 < 6, C1+1, 1), C1)
In D2: =IF(AND(E1=6, F1=6), IF(D1 < 6, D1+1, 1), D1)
In E2: =IF(F1=6, IF(E1 < 6, E1+1, 1), E1)
In F2: =IF(F1 < 6, F1+1, 1)
In G2: =SUM(A2:F2)
In H2: =IF(G2>=15, 1, 0)
Copy A2-H2 to A3-H45656 and then H46657 is = SUM(H1:H46656) is the number of combinations which total to 15 or more.
Voilà.
Definitely a typo. The first sentence of the rule reads ". . . each player rolls three dice . . ."
That could have been better written, but it means that player 1 finishes his activation and rolls three dice, then player 2 finishes his activation and rolls three dice.
I added an erratum on the Game page.
For Shad: I made a typo in the erratum (mis-spelled Special). Can you correct it?
Watch yourself, Robin. Men have died for less than that in China.
;-) (fixed!)
Odd, my older version only states 3 dice. Not sure how the 6 got into the picture.
That's just too much math for a Monday morning.....