RE: Large Games and Fog of War
I am giving some thought myself to the shortcomings of the FoW rule in a somewhat large scenario I am currently soloing. Its counter tally is 177 and is subject to the demoralization problems noted.
I like the suggestion to compel all unactivated demoralized units to make a rally roll after FoW otherwise triggers the end of a turn. The deeper issue is that the FoW die roll is a geometric probability distribution with a predictable mean of 21.6. cjsiam says both sides typically get 11-14 activations. Statistically it's precisely three plus the mean of the FoW distribution divided by two, or about 14, and more for a side with a significant initiative advantage.
While the suggested house rule addresses the demoralization problem it doesn't address other shortcomings to the FoW rule. 10-out-of-216 can be modified depending on the scenario. A scenario half as large as the one I'm playing would need to be limited to 7 activations per side for a similar FoW effect. Subtracting out the three activations minimum per side before FoW rolls commence, this requires on average an additional four activations per side. This would occur for a geometric distribution with a mean of about 8. The mean of a geometric distribution is the reciprocal of the probability of success. Thus we would need an FoW with a 12.5% probability of success, or 27-out-of-216. FoW trigger of 15+ on three dice is 20-out-of-216; FoW trigger of 14+ is 35-out-of-216: FoW trigger on 13 or 16 only is precisely 27-out-of-216.
My point is to provide the mathematical foundation to make the FoW rule more consistent among scenario size. Such adjustments also provide flexibility, since the FoW trigger really shouldn't be 100% consistent anyway. I don't think there's any simple alternative, but for the math-inclined you may keep this post in mind if you're unsatisfied with FoW as it plays out in a particular scenario.
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